Episode 14: With M&A Expert Jeff Pavone

About the Episode: With Q1 closing out, where is the car wash market today, and is now a good time to sell your car wash? In this episode, Lanese Barnett and Jeff Pavone discuss lingering negative headwinds like bank failures, rising interest rates, and increasing competition, but they also highlight how the car wash industry…

Amplify Capital Group
March 30, 2023

March 30, 2023

About the Episode:

With Q1 closing out, where is the car wash market today, and is now a good time to sell your car wash? In this episode, Lanese Barnett and Jeff Pavone discuss lingering negative headwinds like bank failures, rising interest rates, and increasing competition, but they also highlight how the car wash industry remains an attractive investment space, and the list of interested buyers continues to grow.

Matter of fact, there are currently more car wash buyers than there are car wash sellers. And while buyers are taking a more risk-averse approach, they have established their playbook and know what they are looking for. Operators in an A+ location with great execution and a path to continued growth in strong MSAs are still trading at healthy multiples – which is good news for owners considering an exit, especially while inventory is low.

Listen in for more expert insights on the car wash market as well as actionable strategies owners can take to maximize the value of their business.

Sign up for Car Wash M&A, The Newsletter. | Follow us on social media @AmplifyCarWashAdvisors on LinkedIn or Facebook. | Connect with Lanese on LinkedIn.

More about Jeff Pavone:

Jeff Pavone is a leading advisor to the car wash industry, successfully completing more than $5 billion in car wash-related transactions. A lifelong entrepreneur, Jeff is the owner of Commercial Plus, a real estate and business brokerage firm, and a partner at Amplify Car Wash Advisors, a mergers and acquisitions and capital advisory firm specializing exclusively in the car wash industry. Leveraging his longstanding relationships in both the car wash and investment banking industries, Jeff partnered with car wash veteran Bill Martin in early 2020 and launched Amplify Car Wash Advisors to address the evolving needs of car wash owners. Together, Jeff and Bill recognized the need for providing guidance tailored specifically to car wash owners when it comes to selling or scaling their business. Today, Amplify has completed complex transactions for some of the most well-known and widely respected car wash chains in the country and is the only group that bridges the gap between investment banking and car wash operations.

Outside of providing advisory services on a nationwide scale, Jeff is also a real estate investor and car wash owner. Before entering the car wash industry, Jeff was the co-founder of Law.com and founder of Medical.com and National Law Resource.

Check out the full transcript below:

Lanese

Welcome to episode 14 of Car Wash M&A, The Podcast. Today I have my colleague Jeff Pavone on, and we are going to talk about some really super timely topics that are going on, not just in the car wash industry, but in the market as a whole, but how it relates specifically to car wash owners and what they need to know. So, Jeff, since you need no introduction, I would love for you to just dive in and start sharing with us some of what you’re seeing on the horizon. And now that we’re a couple months in to 2023, just what’s your pulse on the market and the car wash industry?

Jeff

Awesome. Thank you, Lanese. Yeah, you know, I think it’s time maybe to sort of set the record straight, because there’s a lot of information coming out on what the market is, and there’s a lot talk about all kinds of negative headwinds. And I’ve got to tell you, what we’re seeing, on our side, is we’re still seeing lots of activity from buyers, with both existing buyers who want to continue to add on to their existing platform, and there’s still plenty of capital that wants to come into the market. Now, with that said, I’d say this is different than what it was the last few years that we saw. I think, in years past, it was almost over the top exuberance of just… it was a race to buy every deal. It was a frenzy, and it was like, Wow, we’ll pretty much buy anything. Today, it is way more cautious buying, way more strategic. Nonetheless, still, we’re seeing strong values being paid. I’d say the bigger issue is we just… There’s just a lack of quality inventory in the market.

Lanese

I think that is such an interesting point. Because it’s not the lack of buyers, it’s really the lack of inventory and the lack of sellers. And that’s part of our message out here today is that there’s still the interest from lots of groups out there that want to explore the car wash space or expand.

Jeff

Right. And I think when you look at the “what inning are we in?” or the opportunity to eventually have an exit, I can tell you that, at least my opinion is, there still whitespace out there; there’s still a lot of groups out there looking to to get scale. But I think as some of those white spaces get filled, that’s the part where I think you’ll start seeing less interest. But that may be… I think we’ve got another couple of years of good solid exits. So if somebody’s looking to sell, I think there’s still an opportunity to get a strong multiple and a good deal. But again, as some of these markets started to get a little bit more saturated than others, that’s a time it’s going to be a little harder to get a good price for your washes.

Lanese

So what are the factors that help move that needle and help get the attractive multiples still? What is it that potential sellers could be thinking about that they need to really focus on today?

Jeff

So I would say, first off, it’s the market. I mean, you’ve got to be in an MSA in a market that buyers want to buy in. So that’s certainly one. Two, lots of money still wants to get behind really solid operators. And I would say, if you’re selling car washes, it’s one value. If you’re selling a car wash company, or if you’re willing to stay in, it’s another thing, and a car wash company would include an infrastructure and a team that can scale the business. Really still strong interest, really healthy multiples being paid for those kind of chains. So I would say if someone’s really looking to get max value, first off, you got to, you got to remember the business that they’re in. And I was with a group yesterday, and I kept asking, “What business are you in?” And they said, “Washing cars!” And really the answer is you’re in the membership business. And I can tell you, if you are really looking at driving value, just remember that. At the end of the day, the more members, and the more of your revenue that’s coming from memberships, which is reoccurring, is far more attractive, far more valuable than just having car washes in general, because it’s something you can count on. Especially, Lanese, when you look at the weather pattern that we’ve been in, and this has been a funk for a while now, driving people crazy. I can tell you, having healthy membership base is the only thing that’s saving some of these guys! The guys without a healthy membership base? They’re getting hammered. And that just goes to the thesis of: What business are you in? You’re in the membership business if you really want to get max value.

Lanese

That’s something that has really emerged, you know, on the forefront, especially in the last couple of years. For example, when you go to the trade shows, and you see so many more technology companies that are looking to address these evolving needs of car wash owners who are focusing on the membership aspect of their business to help keep that stable revenue. And it keeps that track record and the performance history even when you do have crazy things like outlier weather conditions, which are becoming less and less outlier. But also… Those are things that we know are going on, but we have other things that are popping up, like bank failures, and other market conditions, that are affecting what car wash operators can do.

Jeff

Right. I mean, and I think certainly the capital markets have been a big concern for everybody, right? I mean, the guys buying the stuff, the guys driving the values are the private equity groups, and their cost of capital has gone up significantly. And just as importantly, it’s also gotten a lot tougher to get. So it’s not as easy… Before, everybody was flooding the market with fresh capital; they had all the money they needed. Today it is more expensive and way harder to get. I’d say it’s trickled down, to some degree, down to the owner operator level, where it’s gotten more expensive. I mean, it wasn’t long ago, people were able to borrow in the 3% range. And now it’s in the 6% range, maybe getting close to seven. The regional banks have been still supplying good growth capital, but I’ve got to tell you, they’re going to get more conservative. And you can’t predict… Right now, it’s still, I would say, available, but you just can’t predict what six months or years is going to bring, I don’t think we know the full impact of what some of these bank failures are going to mean on a regional level. And I would say, ask me in about 30 or 60 days, and we’ll have a better handle on it. But the money’s just no longer going to be easy or cheap. It’s going to be really for the well-deserving operators; it’s going to be more conservative underwriting, and it’s going to be more expensive. It is still affordable in all senses, but it’s just not going to be nearly as easy. And I can’t tell you what six months or a year predicts will bring the market. But I can only tell you that it doesn’t feel like it’s going to be getting easier. I think it’s going to get a little tougher going forward for everybody in this industry, in this business.

Lanese

I imagine I know the answer to this, but I’ll ask anyways. What is it that car wash owners and operators can do today without knowing what the future holds to help position them better?

Jeff

So you know, I say, you know, a couple things. We’ve been, as a firm, advocates of operations. We’ve been just pushing people to learn how to operate better. At the end of the day, the greatest way to pick up the value you’re going to lose, let’s say on a multiple — let’s say instead of 15, it’s 12 or something now, or 11 — you can still pick it up if you can operate. So I would say invest in in your company. Get to know your customers better; invest in marketing, and driving more members. And so that return on investment is probably the best investment you can make. The other thing is going to be that nobody is buying C or even B sites. So if you’re going to move forward on a development project, just make sure it’s an A plus site, or don’t do it. Because the line is going to be very short for those for those opportunities. But yet there’s still a great opportunity for great sights. So you know, my advice would be you’ve got to be hyper focused on quality on locations, and in quality in operations. That’ll go a long way. The other discussions that we’re having… If somebody is looking at doing something… Again, if you’re in a market where you’ve got a lot of private equity backed chains that are going to continue to grow, the last thing you want to do is be squeezed out where you can’t afford to grow against them, because it just don’t have the capital or want to take that risk on… You really, at that point, need to decide where you want to be in the next couple of years. Because if these chains that are that are now hyper-focused on growing down their multiple by building more Greenfield, and you’re in one of those markets, at some point, your value could start really getting impacted, because you’ll just become an add on deal for somebody. Now, there’s still a great opportunity, if they’re looking for an exit, or even looking for a financial partner, I’d say, look at it now. But if you think about it two years from now, if you’re in a market with really strong competitors, and they continue to grow, you may be a little bit disadvantaged, or boxed in, and your value is going to be impacted by it.

Lanese

It sounds like what you’re saying makes long term sense anyway. Run a strong, operationally focused business that’s scalable and that’s sustainable. If you’re treating your customers and you’re serving your customers well, then you’re already setting yourself up for success to have continued loyalty. But if you’re taking your eye off the ball, or not investing in the team or investing in the marketing, and in those memberships, you do have a more likely chance of being negatively affected by new entrants coming into the market that can out position you in all of those things.

Jeff

That’s right. And I think the independent owner operator still has the advantage, right? I mean, they’re hyper focused on their customers, if they’re doing a good job. Customers, like go into local-owned businesses. And I think the larger chains are doing a little more cost cutting just because it’s the environment we’re in, and that goes across everything they’re doing. And so you can still win with customer experience in that sense. I agree with you totally. I think, at the end of the day, the owner operator has got to make sure they’re just doing the best job, a better job than anybody else. And it’s hard to take away those customers once they become a member. So it goes back to, again, what business are we in? The membership business. As long as you continue to take care of that member, it’s really hard for somebody to take them away.

Lanese

In the last episode I had with the team over at AMP, one of the things that they talked about was brand loyalty over convenience loyalty. And that’s something that they look to help owner operators best position their customers and having those relationships with their customers that’s beyond “it’s convenient and close to my house,” but it’s because this is their brand, and they have that tie to it. And I think that that’s very similar to what we’re talking about that when you have that loyalty to a brand, that you’re now having a relationship with them instead of just a tick mark on your way home that you stop. It’s a two way street to have that relationship aspect of it.

Jeff

Yeah, and I agree for the most part. I mean, I think at the end of the day, if you look at some of the oil companies, they’ve done a great job at building brand loyalty, right? They’ve built really just an amazing… They were in the gas business, but then they got into really the loyalty business and really expanded the customer experience with their new footprints of stores. And for car wash operators… I still think it’s going to be convenience, right? At the end of the day, I’m not going to 10 minutes farther to get a car wash, unless the one near me is that bad. So I do think convenience is still going to be number one, but I do think overall if you can build a convenience along with a very strong brand, that’s the Holy Grail and hard to beat.

Lanese

Then you’re both. So you brought up the gas stations. Let’s talk just a little bit about some of the new entrants into the car wash industry that we’re seeing. We had the True Blue that was bought by or acquired by Couche-Tard. From our standpoint, we’re seeing more and more interest from different companies that are either revisiting or visiting the car wash industry as something that they want to be more active in.

Jeff

Sure. And I would say this year, I’ve had more calls from gas owners, from large national brands, to even real large regional brands, that are all wanting a piece of the action. And they feel that it’s just one more product they can offer their customers, and they’ve got an advantage because they feel they can tie it in, and the brand loyalty thing is going a big way. They can bundle in car washing with something else at the pump, and it becomes far more valuable. And I think where the winds are changing is it doesn’t necessarily have to be on site, on property. So even if the car wash was within maybe two or three miles from where their gas station was, they can still find a way to tie it in. And I think we’re just seeing the dip their toe in the water kind of thing, and sort of an experiment with it. But the bottom line is they’ve got a lot of money. These are very strong real estate companies; they’re very strong loyalty companies. They’ve gotten a lot of cash from the last few years. So I would say, certainly, right now, they’re behind from where some of the great operators are. But they are somebody that to look at because they’re also long-term invested money. So they’re not looking to be in this in the short term. So they can come in this market, and really play the long game where they will invest over time, without having any need for an exit, which makes their business strategy a little different than the current group that’s in the space.

Lanese

And that goes back to our starting conversation about why now is still potentially an attractive time for sellers to consider who their buyers are, their potential buyers are. And it may be more than they think, despite all of these other negative headwinds that we face as well, just in general, or within the car wash industry. But there’s still a lot of opportunity out there with these groups coming into the industry as well.

Jeff

For sure. We’ve seen a major shake up right in the last five years, call it, with private equity really realizing the opportunity in the space. And now I look at it, and I say, let’s look at this, maybe in the next five years: what does the world look like? And I just think it just keeps shrinking as far as what it’s going to look like. I think, you know, great operators and well-established family chains that want to stay the course for the next 20 years could still make it. Again, back to your brand loyalty, because they have brand loyalty. But they’re typically the companies that are investing heavily every day, and adding locations where their market is growing; they’re constantly improving their product with keeping up. And so, I think they can continue on that force for a long time. It’s sort of the guys that are in between… I’d say the guys that are in between, that are still growing their platforms with lots of greenfield development, this guys in between, I think those chains like that… They’re at a point where they’re going to have to make a decision whether to continue to do that, or bring in a financial partner to sort of de-risk some of this growth. And we’re having lots of conversations with folks, because right now they’re feeling the pressure of when I’ve got to build some of that $6 million or $7 million today, and my interest is going to be 6 or 7%, that’s a tremendous difference in the amount of risk that you’re taking on versus before. And as credit gets a little tighter, it’s going to be harder to continue to grow like that. So I think at this point, the good news is, because there is still a lot of interests, I think there’s still opportunities for buyers to bring on a good partner, if they if that’s the way they want to go. Or if they want to sell, I think there’s still great values being done. But Lanese, one of the other really important factors is just knowing who you’re doing business with. Before, sellers and owners, would get phone calls from a hundred groups out there. And for the most part, I would say most of the deals, if they entered into an LOI, would close. That’s not the case today. Today, having the understanding of… I don’t care what group it is, how big they are, how big you think they are, there are a lot of big groups out there that have credit challenges that may or may not be able to close the deal. I would say rely heavily on your advisors and people that have more intimate knowledge about what goes on behind the scenes with some of these chains. But we’ve definitely seen some challenges along the way of folks not getting their deals across the finish line. But I think some of it is just they’ve got to know who they’re partnering with today, because it’s not what it used to be just a year ago.

Lanese

Right. And for some car wash owners that look at, you know, maybe selling direct, there’s a lot of eggs in one basket to one group on a deal that may not close. And so the advantage of having those trusted advisors to help best position to multiple people or know what’s going on broadly in this space can really be key in not wasting your time.

Jeff

You know, Lanese, the most important thing I can tell anybody today is most of the traditional buyers have restraints and they’re going to give you a fair value of what your car wash chain is worth because at this point, they’ve got a pretty good idea of how to make those numbers work. I would say there’s some new entry points and well capitalized private equity groups and other financial buyers that would step in and pay more, but you’ve got to open up your horizon of what that world of new buyers looks like. And that’s where I think today’s owner operator may be a little bit disadvantaged. It’s not like before, where you can count on getting the best dollar from some of the top… one of the top 10 guys out there buying. It really is taking a lot more work to get to know who the complete buying network is. And there really are a lot of newer new players that are not in the space today.

Lanese

And that work that you’re talking about for the owner is making sure that their books and records are organized, and that they’ve got all of their ducks in a row so that when they do have an opportunity to present that, that they have all of the materials and everything organized, that the due diligence side of it is much stronger, as people are taking a more conservative approach to spending their money on the buy side. Right?

Jeff

Yeah, that’s correct. You know, and we have a really good idea of what buyers are looking for and what buyers look for when they’re looking to pay a premium. Everybody wants to get max value, and there is sort of a playbook today. And it’s how you tell the story. And it’s everything from a site level to a company level to a market strategy. And all of these points would really increase your odds of getting a much better, bigger valuation. But it’s not as easy before, of just saying, “Here you go; here’s what I’ve got,” and let somebody just bid on it. You know, I know us as a firm, we put a lot more effort in than what we used to do, in building out that story. But at least we’re starting to see some really good results.

Lanese

Yeah, and I think that one thing that’s really encouraging and should be a point of hope for the operator, too, on this side of kind of the iteration that buyers are looking for and that narrative of telling the story is that it doesn’t always have to check a specific box to still be of value to a buyer on what the opportunity is, and what some of the intangibles are that are maybe down the road, or the strength of their team, or whatever it may be. But there’s more of a opportunity to showcase that when you have that experienced team that knows how to tell that story.

Jeff

For sure. I mean, you know, again, we’re in the middle of working on it, and another 10 plus store transaction, and we meet with the owners, and we’ve been working at this for a year, really helping them to look at the you know, what do you need to do on a site level? What do you need to do on a corporate level? We’re really helping them check all of the boxes that they need to do today to go and really then go out and really try to get a fair value. You know, before it was just a bunch of assets. And really, it’s kind of putting the pieces together to tell the story. To have a scalable car wash company takes a lot more effort and work, but at the end of the day, the reward is a significant upside for the owners.

Lanese

Right. Absolutely. And I mean, at the end of the day, and we’ve talked about this before, but the consumer is also the one that’s winning here, too, by having more quality car washes that are available to them. It’s raising the level of the car wash industry and what customers now expect from car washes in general. And so that’s exciting. And that’s a win win on both sides.

Jeff

Oh, for sure. I mean, at the end of the day, I think the consumer is, is the biggest winner, right? They, they have a lot more options out there as car washes… The old rule was to stay three to five miles away… Three miles and five miles and whatever they can. And now you’re having car washes a mile away, and much closer. And so consumers for sure have a lot more options. And I think in the future, they’re going to have a lot more options as we double the amount of car washes that come out. That’s good news for the consumer. You know, that means for the operators, you know, if somebody’s got a wash, and they’re letting the maintenance go down, or they’re trying to short on chemistry and other things, you know, they’re going to be greatly impacted. And eventually they’re not going to have anywhere to go but down. And the other really important thing, Lanese, is we’re starting to see some really new technologies. You know, day to day, what business are we in? I said, we’re in the membership business, right? You know, the data part of that membership becomes incredibly valuable. The more we, as an industry, learn about our customers, that data becomes really important, especially when you look at the big buyers out there. They make a living at really data on the analyzing data and what they can do with it. And so with car washes, it seems like an old school business, but again, as we grow our membership base, you’re going to have a lot more data. That data becomes incredibly valuable. And so some of the new technologies that are coming out in the market are absolutely invaluable to knowing… The more you know about your customers, the better business you can manage.

Lanese

Absolutely. And with those options for carwash owners, it doesn’t mean that they have to have their own data analyst on their staff, you know, for the smaller groups. There are more plug and play options that are within reach to them that they can use and stay competitive amongst these other larger groups that may come into their market. And that’s really exciting, I think, for the individual owner, or the smaller owner that it’s not out of reach now.

Jeff

Yeah, I would say there’s a lot of innovation going on today. And even on an operator level, there’s a lot of chains that have started creating some of their own technologies, back office and dashboards, and all kinds of cool stuff. The problem is, it’s expensive, really expensive to develop, even more expensive to maintain long term and to stay cutting edge. I think you’re going to see, over the next couple of years, some really high quality technology companies come emerge, that are plug and play, that’ll be white label, for your own car wash chain, that I think can keep you cutting edge, without you sort of killing yourself trying to develop your own systems.

Lanese

Yeah, totally. You read my mind; I think what’s so neat from a branding standpoint, on my side, is that white labeled aspect of it that the customer still feels like they’re talking directly to your brand. And it is. It’s an extension of your brand, but I think that that’s really a neat part of it that’s exciting for car wash owners.

Jeff

I mean, we’ve evolved. Even as we’re preaching to our car wash operators and change to evolve, and because they’re becoming… This is big business now, right? It’s no longer Mom and Pop. We’ve added a bunch of resources on our team. And I would say the majority of that expansion is gone to Operations and Technology because we just believe the real value is going to be an on a site level. Each unit, if you can drive more volume, understand your customers better, you’re going to create a more valuable business. And so as a firm, it’s just really expanded out how we approach it. And again, before, it was easy, right? We’d go out, and take a deal out to the market, and we had a feeding frenzy. Today, it’s different world. We’ve got to basically help, you know, bake that story, and really get operators understanding everything that the outside world is going to be looking for, for that value, and helping bring some of those pieces to them so they can get max value.

Lanese

And not to sound like we’re tooting our own horn here, but that is one of the reasons why I think you and Bill Martin are so smart to assemble people who were already connected to the car wash industry very specifically, because beyond just sending something out two years ago, when there was much more… the pace was so much faster, but now that it’s a little bit slower, and it takes more work in telling those stories and understanding how people can train in their operations, that we have the expertise and the experience to help people do that. And I think that’s super important to have that to lean on.

Jeff

Well, you know, again, as we get more data, if you’re smart, you’re going to be learning from the data, and the data is telling us that there’s still a lot more opportunity in the space on a site level. We’re still seeing sites outperform… You can have two operators in the same market, and one side is outperforming by double or triple because of a better operator. So for us, it’s easy to tell somebody to go build ten more car washes. But I do think it’s probably just as important or more important to show somebody on what resources they have and what they need to do to grow their own business on a site level and building up their corporate level where they can scale a company. It’s far more valuable, but it does take experience and resources to kind of help on that.

Lanese

It does. And it takes the willingness and the motivation and the want to to put that work in because it doesn’t just happen overnight, as we know.

Jeff

That’s right. And there’s ways to sort of learn it, you know, again, we’ve got a lot of operators who have been doing this for 50 years, so they’ve learned over the long haul. And in today’s world, everything’s moving so fast. And because of the much more higher risk environment we’re in because of costs and everything else, for us, we’re just trying to help shorten that learning curve for a lot of people. Because, you know, at this point, there are a lot of good playbooks out there, so anything you can do to shorten the learning curve, you’re probably better off.

Lanese

Yeah, totally. I love the Cliff’s Notes version with still the A+ at the end. Well, Jeff, thank you for sharing your thoughts on where we are today and some outlooks over the next six months, the next couple of years, in where the car wash runway still lies ahead. You shared in the beginning that your overall thesis for the car wash industry is still favorable, so that’s great news. We’ll take it. Anything that you want to leave our listeners with before we sign off until next month.

Jeff

No, I would just say, I would start expanding your horizons on looking at all the tools and technologies that are out there now that can help you manage and grow your business better, because they’re there. They’re out there, and there’s more to come. And again, remember the business you’re in. If you’re looking at the way to maximize value, take memberships.

Lanese

I like it. All right, well, we have the car wash show through the International Car Wash Association coming up in Las Vegas in early May. So we will have a booth there if anybody wants to come by and say hello, our booth is number 811. We’d love to see you, and thank you for listening.

Jeff

Thank you.

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